So there's been a couple of draft reviews so far on Slack about who did what and why and frankly I've been underwhelmed by them. That's not really a criticism of the reviewer but a matter of perspective, I see little point in rating everyone against my criteria because it simply would mean some of you are looking at things in a very different manner. I don't expect Kwame for example to understand my approach in the same way I don't expect Adam's or Jeff's ranking to be anything like mine. The only review I've found really useful so far is Jason Hoagland of Clipper fame and @theosu for want of a better handle fame. So what I'm going to do here is explain why I made my selections and how that works for me and then say who's draft I admired not against a scale that's different, but just their approach and philosophy because I could see it. If I couldn't see it, that doesn't mean it wasn't there, just not visible to me at this stage, because let's face it none of this really becomes evident until we have a few seasons under our belt.
**Update: Just read Dan's piece on his process - this was great too thanks Dan**
So I got to pick 26 in the draft which any way you want to cut it is pretty crap. Sure the top 5 hold their own dilemma and a gap to pick 2, but hey, who wouldn't want to base their team around an elite guy like Lebron? As far as picking I'll get to that in a second but the metrics I use are slightly different from some of you. If you force me to pick a single stat then without doubt it's the per minute rating, it's far more important than PER because it basically gives an even weighting to defense (PER is heavily slanted towards offensive efficiency if you hadn't worked it out). But if you work on one metric you'll end up average and I don't like that idea - so I also look at TS% closely, rebounds, assists, steals (to a lesser extent blocks too), intimidation/harassment rating, offensive rating and finally points in just about that order. I also add a pinch of fouls, def PER and wrap that all in to a heat map which I automated for every player in the draft. I figured this was going to make me a little prepared at least (and I know there are other guys out there looking deeper than me too).
Anyways, not blessed with a high pick I had a little list of guys I was going with that was, as expected, getting whittled down to a few - with 2 guys left on my list and 2 guys picking in front I got that sinking feeling again... sure enough Anthony Davis was quickly followed out the door by the guy I really wanted in Bob Pettit. If I'd have had Pettit in the first you would be looking at a team that was going to compete year 1 like the Tackers... but alas it wasn't to be. Of course, this can be a huge negative when you have your heart set on a pick (in the UBAL draft I saw TMac disappear the pick ahead and settled for Walt Frazier - which I think in the long run may have been just what I needed to pair with Butler, but I digress..). The upside is you have to re-think and do it quickly, this is the space where I'm possibly at my best, in this case at 3am in the morning trying not to wake the mrs I took a leap. I was seriously considering going with Walt Bellamy and going for a championship year one which I felt I could strongly contend with... Russell Westbrook was on a list I called 'wildcards' because of the x-factor and impact. Suddenly I had a great idea that I could re-think my now and forever strategy and come out with a team that had versatility, depth and impact, it would just mean not going for it year 1 (and probably year 2 too). So, gulp, I drafted Westbrook at 1.
Actually Westbrook is not that much of a reach if he continues on his trend. Season 3 he's very good with a 0.76 per min rating and a PER of 27. By season 7 he's at a breath-taking 0.96 per min and a 32 PER - season 8 is not yet known but last year in the NBA was arguably his best yet so, yeah, I'm okay with the #1 selection. Of course, then Rob picked Eglin and I cried a little as he's a personal fave and I wanted to add him with my second believing that SF/PF spot is as important (well... very close to) the C spot and PG. Not to be, I came up with the second half of the draft philosophy that was I would take all new guys and guys I'd always coveted. So combine that with the conventional wisdom I needed a big for my second pick; #39 I took Arvydas Sabonis. I knew this would again solidify the direction I was headed, a guy I liked because of his versatility and impact but injuries would be an issue of course. I approach injuries a bit different to most of you but I know some of you understand where I'm coming from (Eddie and Steve spring to mind here). Sure I want 30 PER guys who play 82 games for 10+ seasons, if I can't have them I don't want the long-term average guy, I want IMPACT. Sabonis has that, he plays for 18 years and pretty much every one is impact with double-digit per 36 boards and a PER of over 20 (some over 28) and a per min of 0.6+ and the first 10 years averaging over 0.7 - there was simply no-one else like that left early second for my money so Sabonis was Bayside bound. The injuries aren't a non-factor, the rest of my strategy suddenly needed year matching to cover and arrange backups moving on.
It's a cruel wait in the early rounds watching so many awesome guys vanish, but I knew they would. I was waiting at #71 with a sense of deja vu because there was a guy I really wanted to fill the wings for me and I knew he was going to go so I made a call to move up knowing it would give me some pain a little later. Grant Hill came in with pick #68 and I've rarely been happier with a pick. Hill is a massive impact guy, hugely versatile and impactful in years 2-6 and a great character to boot. He also synched well with the big year that year 3 was looking like. I knew I could gain an edge on some GMs by neglecting year 1 impact and catching the guys by not trying to create an awesome team every year so year matching became an important feature.
4th round rolling around and I made a mistake in UBAS by drafting Jack Sikma too early in the UBAS draft and I was determined to not make that mistake again and stick with my game plan. Not that Sikma is a bad guy, not at all, but I went with who I'd had before and knew rather than what was best for me - hey it worked out well, Sikma got his ring in season 2 and even made a return later, but it was a poor pick at the time. Funny thing is that I had the same feeling as the round before and jumped up a few picks to grab another guy I've always wanted for impact in Amare Stoudamire at #100. Was now feeling pretty good about my strategy because they all have monster year 3s and some great years to follow. Problem was year 4 was down for both Amare and Sabonis so I knew I'd have to go back more than once to the 'big' strategy to cover and stay competitive. Of course the other issue was Hill and Amare cost me the entire 5th round as I had to sit it out watching more guys I coveted disappear.
6th round was an unusual pick for me in Zach Randolph - I've never had him, but I kinda think he's built for UBA basketball and I needed someone to mesh years at PF. Some great years including 3 but, damn it, more injuries in year 4 and whilst I have the patience to sit out the first year okay, I'm not great with sitting out 2 of the first 4, so I knew this was going to mean going back to the board looking big again. 7th I was considering moving up to take a backup PG in Rajon Rondo or Andre Miller, but as they disappeared off the board I felt comfy with my pick and landing a big to cover injuries. Pretty stoked to get Connie Simmons at this point actually, not a guy I'd had (or heard of previously, thanks Stan!) but man, some years over 0.7 and 30? Yeah really stoked. Of course plays most games in year 4 that helps, but with a drop off in performance that year I knew I'd be looking to still patch up big years later on. Still year 3 was looking fun.
Two picks in the 7th was nice and I was starting to think that 8 picks in I still had no SG and only one PG. I wanted a PG/SG ideally and was very tempted to take Baron Davis because of his impact even with his injuries but the years didn't work out. This was my biggest reach according to Adam's analysis which I understand, because I'd never heard of Bobby Holm and I picked him purely on analytics. His per game totals are very average and more 10th or 12th round than 7th but he 'fit' with my squad, great per min averages, above average defensive and a great offensive facilitator. I always had in my head he would be a bit of a backup at both positions rather than the starter, but I'll reserve full judgement on myself until I see how the system likes him year 2 onwards. For now, I'll agree with my friend down-under and say he was probably my least favourite pick in the draft on retrospect.
Round #8 though was probably a great bounce-back as I took another analytical selection in Lou Spindell. SF spot is notoriously hard to fill and Spindell goes 5 straight years over 0.6 and this late on I felt was a really great find. Good years 2-6 when the meat of my team was performing at its highest and a great depth guy. #263 and round 9 I got my backup PG if he continues his young career the way he's started it. Love Kemba Walker, he's a tough guard who brings it and plays with heart and soul, that and a decent set of stats helps. 5 quality years so far including better than Westbrook year 1 so a good guy to get in the 9th of course I had 50 odd picks to wait to the 10th and that hurt again.
Round #10 I was torn between picking Paul Pressey or Michael Redd. Loved Redd's scoring and I still didn't have a starting 2, but Pressey is a game changer as my friend Kwame would put it. Like some of you I tried to guess where others might go with their picks and so I decided to go with Redd who I felt was on more GMs radar than Pressey. Redd's a scorer but he's actually got a nice all-round game and I know he'll lead us in scoring some years so I think a perennial starter in round 10 was the right call. Of course I lucked in when Pressey was still available in round 11, I didn't even look at anyone else for the first time in the draft.
Another long wait to #12 and knowing that despite having a fair few bigs there were still injury holes I was torn between a third PG or another big. I was thinking maybe Isaiah Thomas, maybe Ricky Rubio, maybe Don Carlson or Calvin Natt - they all went by shrewd GMs so I moved on some beef instead and added Jeff Ruland because by my measures he was the best PF/C for year 4 left in the draft. Yeah he has some good years around it, but really Jeff is here to get me through year 4 - he's a 0.6 per min guy that year playing 75 games and grabbing 13 boards and 22 points shooting over 55% and with a -.0099 intim rating. Beef.
With the draft winding down we saw some ropey late picks so I thought why not grab another guy who fits the mould with versatility as everyone else seemed to be thinking young future guys. I love the #391st pick because Sidney Wicks is a seriously cool cat who goes from year 1 and someone else should have picked him before me. His PER isn't that great but his per min is with 0.57 and 0.59 in the first two years. 22pts 10rebounds and over 4 assists from a SF guy with a defensive PER of 4.3 in season 1, this is why I don't worry too much about other people's lists, I would have grabbed him much earlier if I was going for year 1. I may well trade him, but actually he gives me a shot at playoffs in season 2 which without him I wouldn't have as my other PFs are not quite enough yet. He's probably the only guy I'm going to maybe trade this year. Those that know me from UBAS probably doubt this, I've been fairly prolific on the trade scene but this year has to be about patience for me, so Wicks maybe the only guy I can move and even then I'd be best not to.
Final round and I'm thinking that I desperately need a PG for year 6 when Westbrook plays half a season, Holms is gone and who knows what Kemba will do? So I go all out looking for the best and stumble upon a guy I may have picked up before if I'd seen him in Reggie Jackson. Getting better year by year and season 5 NBA is his best yet... I'm hoping either him or Kemba play big in the next couple of years, but if not, for a 14th rounder I can live with the call.
Next blog I'll predict how we'll go for the next few years... it won't be great this year and I suspect 30 odd wins, but I'll try a Kwame-esque lineup and see if we can't get over 40 with some twinking of the roster :)
No comments:
Post a Comment